مجلة دراسات الإنسان و المجتمع

This research aimed to identify the impact of oil prices on the parallel exchange rate in the Libyan economy. The research used the standard method, and the data was analyzed by estimating an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model for a data series for the period (1980-2021). Several results were reached, the most important of which are: There is a complementary relationship between oil prices and the parallel exchange rate in the long run, but it is an illogical relationship at the (5%) level. Also, there is no mutual causal relationship, but rather a unidirectional relationship from oil prices to the parallel exchange rate. And that there is an inverse relationship between oil prices and the parallel exchange rate. The value of the error correction factor is negative and significant (-0.16), which means that the speed of correction is 16%, and to reach equilibrium in the long term is 7 years, which shows that there is a logical relationship between the variables. The results of the evaluation and diagnosis also showed that the estimated model is stable and free of standard problems. The model's predictive ability. The research paper recommended diversifying sources of income for the Libyan economy. Setting a fixed exchange rate by the Central Bank of Libya and eliminating the non-parallel exchange market. Working to activate the exchange rate policy tools in Libya to achieve its goals. Keywords: dollar exchange rate, global oil price, ARDL method