International Science and Technology Journal

The study examined the use of time series models to forecast cement prices at the Al-Marqab Cement Plant in Libya, focusing on predicting cement prices for eight months during the year 2024. The study relied on monthly data spanning from 2021 to 2023. The results showed that the price series was stable at the second-order difference, as confirmed by the Dickey-Fuller test, which indicated the need for this transformation. After evaluating the proposed models, the study concluded that the ARIMA (1,2,0) model was the most suitable for forecasting cement prices. Evaluation criteria such as Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) were used to compare the models. Since the results provide accurate forecasts of cement prices, they enable the plant management to make informed decisions regarding production and pricing in the upcoming period. The study recommends using these findings for production planning and pricing strategies. Additionally, future studies could expand the scope of research to include additional economic factors that may influence cement prices................ Keywords:............ARIMA, prices, forecasting, cement, mean square error, production planning.